CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 08Z WED 17/09 - 06Z THU 18/09 2003
ISSUED: 17/09 08:31Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

General thunderstorms are forecast across Southern central Mediterranean

SYNOPSIS

Upper ridge placed over western Europe ... yielding a deep southwesterly flow over the western parts of the forecast area. Warm airmass seems to be quite stable, and thunderstorms are not expected over the Iberian Peninsula and Great Britain. To the east ... weak long wave trough is situated over most of Europe ... and relatively cold and stable airmass covers the region. Over the Mediterranean ... weak dissipating short wave trough will remain ... and affected airmass shows moderate CAPE values over the southern central Mediterranean. Vertical shear and synoptical forcing should be quite weak ... and severe thunderstorms are not expected.

DISCUSSION

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